Physics to Wage Peace
Presented at the Symposium on the History of Physics in the National Defense
1999 APS Centennial Meeting, Atlanta, GA , March 24, 1999
C. Paul Robinson
I. Introduction
Almost as long as there have been nuclear weapons, arms control efforts have attempted to develop a stable, international norm against their use. In fact, monitoring and verification methods have been proposed for treaties dealing with the full range of weapons of mass destruction: nuclear, chemical, biological, and radiological. In the process of fielding and operating these monitoring systems, much fundamental physics information has been developed–from measurements of galactic gamma bursts to the natural seismic background. This paper reviews several of the most important advances in verification technology and points the way to new work that is involving physicists from around the world in the development of international monitoring systems. It also outlines ongoing efforts to apply these tools to the fundamental causes of conflicts between nations and to reduce the potential for such conflicts by providing technical means to enhance confidence between the parties to agreements.
II. Satellite Sensors
The first agreement to limit nuclear testing was the 1958 to 1961 Nuclear Test Moratorium. This agreement was a precursor to the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty that banned nuclear tests in the atmosphere, underwater, and in space. The United States Atomic Energy Commission was tasked with developing instrumentation to ensure that other parties to the treaty were abiding by the agreement not to test. In order to meet this tasking, the Vela program was created. Vela had a seismic component, both regional and teleseismic, and a space component. In the post-Sputnik era, it was felt that satellites might make ideal platforms on which to place detectors in order to look down at the other side of the earth as well as to look outward into space. The first Vela satellite (see Fig. 1), weighing in at only fifty pounds, was launched in 1963, and by 1970 a constellation of twelve was in orbit. For their time, these were very sophisticated measurement systems, solar-powered and utilizing more than 4,000 transistors to perform some on-board signal analysis in order to reduce the telemetering demand. The principal instrument was a radiometer called a "bangmeter" that looked for the characteristic double-humped optical output of a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere–the first peak resulting from gamma-induced fluorescence in the air and the second much slower rise-time peak resulting from the fireball itself (see Fig. 2).
The Vela system was involved in a major controversy following the detection by a single satellite of a "flash in the South Atlantic" on September 22, 1979 that was picked up and telemetered to earth. Most system experts were convinced that a nuclear explosion had occurred off the East Coast of South Africa. President Carter’s Administration refused to accept that it was conclusively a nuclear test, noting that no nation had (then) claimed credit for such an explosion. The controversy was never officially settled and the one important outcome was to add a requirement that, in the future, there would have to be simultaneous data from two independent sensors before a conclusive ruling would be made. In 1984, the Vela mission was assumed by a new system of detectors riding piggy-back on Department of Defense satellites–first the Defense Support System satellites, whose primary mission was to detect rocket launches on the earth, and later on the Global Positioning Satellite constellation. These systems have grown more sophisticated over time, incorporating optical, x-ray, g -ray, and electromagnetic pulse sensors.
These space instruments fielded in the name of arms control have also become major sources of data for a wide spectrum of natural phenomena, both near the earth and in space. They detected the first gamma bursts from within our own galaxy and have been a primary source of data on both major lightning storms and bolides, large meteorites that explode while still in the atmosphere. These satellites meet the requirements of being "independent platforms," as well as providing a highly accurate position location through cross-correlation of signals from different satellites. They will continue to provide the United States with an important capability to supplement the earth-based International Monitoring Systems for monitoring the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
III. Seismic
The three United States nuclear weapons labs–Sandia, Los Alamos, and Lawrence Livermore–also divided up the workload for developing earth-based sensors for detecting and identifying nuclear tests. Lawrence researched teleseismic signals, those that propagate through and around the earth from a seismic event or an underground nuclear explosion; while Sandia worked on regional seismic waves, those that propagate less than 2000 km. Los Alamos specialized in both hydro-acoustic sensors to detect underwater explosions and infrasound sensors, designed to detect the very low frequency acoustic waves that propagate around the earth, bouncing between the earth’s surface and the ionosphere.
In 1966 the first prototype of an unattended seismic station was put into service in Alaska. It was soon followed by one in Utah and another in New Mexico (see Fig. 3). These systems could operate continuously and unattended for up to 120 days, with data recorded in ways that made them highly tamper resistant. Host nations could monitor, after the fact, that only the seismic data was being transmitted. Later the stations were retrofitted with satellite communications systems that used public key encryption, making them even more tamper resistant.
These early developments were improved over time, as the seismic sensors continued to both improve and to be miniaturized–from heavy cylinders six feet in length to instruments smaller than a soda can. More and more nations began building and operating seismic stations, thereby monitoring seismic activity virtually everywhere on the globe. These systems provide the basis for the design of what will be the International Monitoring System, now in final stages of development under the direction of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Preparatory Commission in Vienna. The initial system will include 140 seismic stations, 60 infrasound stations, 6 hydro-acoustic stations, and 5 so-called t-wave stations (sensors placed on small islands). Finally, there will be 80 radionuclide collection and monitoring stations. All of these will be operating when the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty enters into force.
IV. On-Site Inspections and Cooperative Monitoring
In the mid-1980’s the United States and the Soviet Union began negotiations on the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty–an agreement not just to limit, but completely to eliminate an entire class of missile systems. Late in the negotiations, for the first time, the Soviet government voiced its willingness to consider on-site inspection as a means of assuring that prohibited missiles were not being built. The United States quickly began to develop technology to monitor for such an agreement. During a three-month period in 1986 a prototype inspection facility was constructed at Sandia to demonstrate and evaluate technology for portal-perimeter monitoring. The exit portals from missile production plants would be fitted with linear shape arrays and weight scales. If a vehicle capable of transporting a missile came through the portal, its physical extent and weight would be determined. If the measured parameters fell within the range that could include a prohibited missile, an x-ray profile (measured using a high-energy x-ray system with some detectors deactivated to prevent imaging of the sensitive missile internals) would be obtained to demonstrate that the shipment did not include a treaty-limited item. These systems were put into operation following entry into force of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and they continue to operate successfully at the Votkinsk Missile plant in Russia and the Magna (Utah) Rocket Motor facility.
The United States and Soviet Union also moved to develop on-site monitoring regimes that could be used to verify both the Threshold Test Ban Treaty and the Treaty on Nuclear Explosions for Peaceful Purposes. In the spring of 1988 the two sides agreed to carry out a Joint Verification Experiment in which each side would bring instruments to the other’s test site to make direct hydrodynamic and seismic measurements to ensure that explosions were less than the 150 kiloton yield mandated in these treaties. The Joint Verification Experiment was doubtless the most extensive cooperative data collection endeavor. It involved large crews of physicists, engineers, and technicians from both countries for several months’ duration. Following the successful measurements and joint data analysis, verification protocols to the two treaties were negotiated. They were ratified unanimously and entered into force in 1990. Although the participants were unaware of it at the time, the opening up of working relationships among the nuclear laboratories in both the United States and the Soviet Union, developed as a part of the Joint Verification Experiment, set the stage for many of the joint projects and programs, particularly the development of special nuclear materials controls, that are occurring today.
V. Multilateral Arms Control Agreements and Open Skies
In the early 1990’s the successful negotiation of the Conventional Forces in Europe agreement provided the opportunity for even wider application of cooperative monitoring and on-site inspections, this time to account for literally thousands of conventional weapons and their delivery systems. Here again technology that was being developed in support of earlier agreements, particularly reflective particle tags (unique patterns of crystalline particles embedded in clear plastic) and electronic tags (small electronic devices that could be bonded to vehicles and read remotely), provided tamper-resistant "license plates" for monitoring and accounting.
A reduction of the East-West tensions in Europe also led to the resurrection of the oft-postponed "Open Skies" concept in which individual nations would open their air space for planes outfitted with agreed instrumentation to monitor what was taking place on the ground within their territories. One important instrument, synthetic aperture radar, provided the capability of seeing through clouds and during nighttime hours to obtain high-resolution radar images. The general standard, agreed in the Open Skies Treaty, was to limit the radar resolution to three meters to minimize intrusiveness while allowing large items of military hardware to be imaged. These short-notice aerial overflight inspections carried out cooperatively have been another hallmark of confidence building between states.
VI. Global Nuclear Materials Management
Beginning with the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor the Nonproliferation Treaty, and moving forward in time to the current Material Protection, Control, and Accounting agreements between the United States and the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the development of sensors and systems to detect and monitor uranium and plutonium has continued to benefit from research efforts in many laboratories. These efforts are essential to confirming that materials that could be used to make nuclear weapons are properly safeguarded.
Five Department of Energy laboratories (Sandia, Los Alamos, Lawrence Livermore, Argonne, and Pacific Northwest) are now active at fifty-three sites within the former Soviet Union working with local scientists to upgrade installed systems and to transfer materials protection and security technologies. The Soviet model for materials control relied on "guards, gates, and guns" and significant investments had not been made in monitoring and safeguards instrumentation. A key emphasis in the joint work is to tailor technology to help safeguard the material while also minimizing the costs of such security and control.
One prototype material protection program is of special interest: the use of the Internet to allow real-time, remote monitoring of stores of special nuclear material, which might otherwise be diverted to weapons use. In one ongoing demonstration project, storage sites at the Kurchatov Institute in Moscow and the Argonne West site in Idaho have been instrumented with a variety of material protection, video, and security instruments. Data from these instruments are encrypted using public key methods and transmitted over the Internet. The mutually accessible Internet web site includes a live video of the storage area that is cued by any changes in the sensor’s field of view. The data encryption system being used allows each side to completely decode all of the data that is being transmitted from its site (to confirm that only the agreed data is being transmitted) but does not permit the side to tamper with or change that data prior to its transmission. This data authentication system was originally developed for nuclear data sharing between the United States and Australia and is proving to be quite successful in the current demonstration. We expect to see more applications of this very powerful monitoring and confidence-building technology used in the future.
VII. Monitoring of the Chemical and Biological
Weapons Conventions
Monitoring the production and/or weaponization of chemical or biological systems presents considerable challenge to physicists and other scientists. More than two dozen nations around the world are thought to possess such weapons in various stages of development. The ability to monitor their activities and distinguish them from permitted activities such as the production of pesticide chemicals or the preparation of medical vaccines is not yet in hand. The efforts of the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq showed the need for effective, portable, and reliable detectors that can identify chemical or biological agents without false positives.
The quest to develop such instruments, and to achieve remote monitoring systems (e.g., systems that can operate from aircraft or space platforms) are stressing the state of the art. For example, systems that incorporate on-platform species for comparative analysis along with considerable on-board data processing are being developed in several laboratories and universities; and the Multi-Spectral Thermal Imager satellite now under development will incorporate more than twenty-four spectral bands in unique ways throughout the infrared, visible, and ultraviolet. Despite these technological advances, detection of these materials is much more difficult than detection of nuclear materials, and the far greater diversity of such materials makes this perhaps the most difficult of present technological puzzles.
VIII. Future Opportunities
The use of technical verification methods for monitoring treaty provisions, as well as for establishing mutual monitoring regimes, was born during the Cold War and has led to many collaborative developments between the United States and the nations of the former Soviet Union. The potential for the use of similar techniques as a means to build confidence and "wage peace" between other nations presents many promising opportunities. Use of monitoring instruments to cost effectively monitor a border region, such as the Siachen Glacier between India, Pakistan, and China, can begin to provide confidence and, in time, build a sound technical basis for trust in the activities of any parties in the region.
It is this use of "Physics to Wage Peace" that I chose for the title of this paper. It represents a major opportunity for us to apply military technologies developed during the Cold War to reduce tensions in the post-cold-war era. In particular, we note that the motivations to acquire weapons of mass destruction by a nation are almost always driven by concerns for their own security, and aggravated by their perceptions concerning neighbors in their region. By using cooperative monitoring to reduce these tensions we can promote greater stability and keep border conflicts from blossoming into regional wars.
Sandia created the Cooperative Monitoring Center in 1994, and since then, we have had individuals from more than forty nations participate in training, technology transfer, and conferences on ways to achieve greater stability and peace. There is much more that I believe can and should be done to use technology to promote peace.
In this spirit I would like to close with a quote from Albert Einstein, in a talk to physics students at Cal Tech in 1931.
"Concern for man himself and his fate must always form the chief interest of all technical endeavors–in order that the creations of our mind shall be a blessing and not a curse to mankind. Never forget that in the midst of your diagrams and equations."
Ambassador C. Paul Robinson
Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185