Archived Newsletters

More on Lay Science Books vs Lay Science Knowledge

(cf. P&S, July 98, p.2)

Ever since the rise of modern science in the 17th century, many scientists have tried to bring to the attention and enrichment of the general public the discoveries and world views of science: through public lectures and popular writings. By and large these have given flavor for, if not a deep understanding of, technical science.

At the same time, philosophers and theologians have always tried to interpret and extrapolate the latest theories and findings of science. Up until the 20th century most of these interpreters and extrapolators relied on original (technical) sources and generally grasped the technical aspects of what they were commenting upon.
In the course of our own century, however, the technical (and mathematical) aspects of science, especially of physics, became so abstruse and complex that only the initiates could fully understand the essence and implications of it all. The "popular" writings of intelligent and philosophically-mindedphysicists lost quite a bit in the translation (to the popular style). As result, expositions, and those other able writers who got their own information second hand, had created an altogether new genre of scientific knowledge which consists largely of poetic and picturesque world views, dubiously related to hard-core science, but rich, soothing, and far more suitable for public consumption This has become fertile ground for unbridled imagination, mystical interpretations, and theological extrapolations: all of which are loosely bound in interesting ways with the formulas, utterances, and puzzles of modern physics. Whether it is relativity..., every revelation of 20th century physics (whether tentative or final) has given rise to profuse and productive extrapolations: often to establish the limits of the scientific enterprise, to prove again and again the existence of God, preferably of a particular theology, and to show that the sacred books (of ones own cultural affiliation) had said more or less the same thing in symbolic ways.

I doubt that any money-consuming "study" will reveal anything important, useful, or significant than what I have listed above.
What the scientific community/organizations need to do is not so much to teach to the public the latest scientific discoveries (like the mass of the neutrino or the existence of a planet in a distant stellar system, but exert a good deal more effort to educate the children in schools on the framework, values, and methodology of science, as well as the elementary principles of astronomy, biology, and physics.

Varadaraja V. Raman

Informing the Public or Disparaging Them

In reading the July issue of Physics and Society I was surprised and disappointed at the "Editor s Comment" on the published letters concerning the Ward Valley nuclear waste repository, written by Alan Pasternak and myself.

Contrary to the Editor s Comment, the letters do not at all "disparage the public for its very real fears". Indeed, the point of my letter was just the opposite; that "we in the technical community" are failing the public by not providing them "with the information needed to allow them to choose a sound, vital, energy course." And again, in Mr. Pasternak s letter there is no disparagement of the public, but rather concern over the success of anti-nuclear groups in utilizing legal delays, not sound technical reasons, to stop progress on radioactive waste disposal.

The point is that lack of sound information can be devastating to the public . Consider the deaths due to the Chernobyl accident. There were some forty deaths in the USSR due to nuclear radiation from the accident. But there were some fifty thousand baby deaths in Europe due to abortions by mothers who feared the affects of the radiation coming from Chernobyl. Actually, the added radiation was less than the added amount I would receive if I moved to Denver. And guess what? People live longer in Denver than they do in California. Clearly, the people in Europe were not informed of the negligible (maybe healthy) effects of low radiation levels. Are those in our country more informed? As the Editor (ES) suggests, should we ignore their fears?

What of the potentially disastrous Greenhouse Effect? Have we informed our people that the only way to significantly mitigate it is by a world wide expansion of nuclear energy?

And why do we keep our troops in Saudi Arabia? As the world's energy use doubles to quadruples in the next half century, a key means of meeting world needs and avoiding international hostilities over scarce energy supplies is the expansion of nuclear energy.

The point is that our population, and our children and grandchildren may suffer greatly in the future from today s public lack of sound information and perspective on the energy and nuclear energy situation. Do we technical people not have a responsibility to try to bring forth meaningful technical perspective which could greatly ameliorate the risks? Or, as ES seems to advise, should we ignore the situation, and the anti-nuclear garbage, even if it may result in a devastating future for our nation and the world?

Bertram Wolfe
Retired VP & General Manager of GE Nuclear Energy
154543 Via Vaquero, Monte Sereno, CA 95030
Phone and Fax: (408) 395- 9039

Public Understanding of Radiation Hazards: Need for New Radiation Standards?

...one of the fundamental obstacles to better public awareness of the issues in this area, and very likely the source of irrational fears by the public, is our lack of consistent and appropriate units in discussing radiation and radioactive waste. How is the public, or even an interested non-specialist, supposed to comprehend issues that involve, at varying times: Curies, (and density units such as picoCuries per liter, picoCuries per gram), rads, rem, days or years (for isotope or effective body half-lives), electron-Volts, and of course the metric Bequerels, sieverts, grays, etc, not to mention the chemical and physical properties of the 300 or so regularly encountered specific isotopes...

For example, how is a lay-person supposed to compare 1 picoCurie per gram of plutonium with 10,000 picoCuries per liter of tritium, as has been reported in the ground near Brookhaven Lab? Aside from the inconsistent density units, they would be unlikely to know that Pu-239 releases 300 times as much energy in each decay, and remains 2000 times longer, so 1 Curie of Pu-239 represents 600,000 times as much relatively-long-term radioactive energy release as 1 Curie of tritium. The Curie is probably the most egregious unit when "total Curies" for a huge number of different isotopes are lumped together, as I have seen in Physics Today and elsewhere.

In my opinion the standards for reporting radioactive contamination and exposure should be revised to use 3 basic measures:

  1. total radioactive energy (eg. in Joules) following normal decay chains.
  2. radioactive energy release per second (ie. Watts)
  3. Exposure factor (unitless) - quantity of (1) or (2) absorbed or exposed to along with appropriate decay factors.

The first measure gives an upper bound to energy release - and reveals a point not often understood: total radioactive energy always decreases with time (barring some caveats with neutron activation, fusion reactors, and accelerators). A fission reactor converts high energy-content

Uranium to much lower energy-content mid-size nuclei - the only reason radioactive energy release (2) increases is because of the much shorter half-lives of the newly created isotopes. The second measure is basically the product of the decays per second (Curies) with the energy released - a reasonable measure of the current danger level of a particular contamination environment. The third measure is where the particular details of chemistry and the physical interaction with the environment come in - and may really be composed of several distinct types, depending on the types of exposure possible (ingestion, inhalation, or simple presence in the neighborhood). Plutonium may in fact be less dangerous bound to the soil than tritium in the water supply, but a numerical factor expressing those relative dangers would be extremely useful.
The radiation health community has a responsibility to come up with numbers that can be readily comprehended by the general public and interested non-specialists, and I believe they have failed badly at ... allowing simple independent assessments of radiation hazards by a much larger fraction of the population.

Arthur Smith

Articles

What is science - that the layman should respect it so much and misunderstand/misuse it so badly? This is a question that has long preoccupied us at the Forum and will continue to do so. Magnetism is a good example of this public confusion, as is illustrated by the "Wisconsin Debate" (Scott, Salt, Parejko) which we publish this month (it's a pity they seem not to have heard of "Occam's Razor") as well as the article by Liboff. Some extraordinary physicists - such as Leo Szilard, the namesake for one of our two important Forum Awards - have distinguished themselves in careers which transcend any simple notions of scientific boundaries. Others, such as Robert Park, this year's winner of the other Forum Award, have contributed to our understanding of the question by creatively illustrating public attitudes and their contrast to our usual scientific approaches.

Szilard's Roots and His Interdisciplinarity

Lecture at the American Physical Society meeting, Columbus, Ohio, 18 April 1998

George Marx

Enrico Fermi was a man with outstanding talents, he had many interests outside his own particular field. He was credited with asking famous questions. There are long preambles to Fermi’s questions like this: – "The universe is vast, containing myriads of stars, many of them not unlike our Sun. Many of these stars are likely to have planets circling around them. A fair fraction of these planets will have liquid water on their surface and a gaseous atmosphere. The energy pouring down from a star will cause the synthesis of organic compounds, turning the ocean into a thin, warm soup. These chemicals will join each other to produce a self-reproducing system. The simplest living things will multiply, evolve by natural selection and become more complicated till eventually active, thinking creatures will emerge. Civilization, science, and technology will follow. Then, yearning for fresh worlds, they will travel to neighboring planets, and later to planets of nearby stars. Eventually they should spread out all over the Galaxy. These highly exceptional and talented people could hardly overlook such a beautiful place as our Earth. And so," – Fermi came to his overwhelming question, – "if all this has been happening, they should have arrived here by now, so w h e r e a r e t h e y?" – It was Leo Szilard, a man with an impish sense of humor, who supplied the perfect reply to Fermi's rethoric: – "They are among us," - he said, – "but they call themselves Hungarians."

This is how Francis Crick's book The Life Itself begins. It is not difficult to find out where the alien space ship landed: the "Martians" who influenced science and technology in the 20th century (Dennis Gabor, Andrew Grove, George de Hevesy, Theodore von K6xm6n, John G. Kemeny, Arthur Koestler, John von Neumann, Leo Szilard, Edward Teller, Eugene P. Wigner) were born within a circle of 1 km radius in the downtown of Budapest. Does anyone need any other proof or explanation?

Well, Hungary was always at the crossroads of history. This is the place where history used to happen:
The Roman legions, armies of the mongol Dzengis Khan, the Muslim invasion were stopped at the Danube.
Catholicism came from Italy, Orthodox Christianity from the Bizantium, the Reformation from Germany, the Islam from the Ottoman Empire.

Thus Hungary was a collision point of cultures. This delicious mixture was flavored, when the Jews - having been expelled from Western Europe in the l5th-l6th century, then from Russia and Russia-occupied Poland in the l8th-l9th century– wandered to Hungary. Hungarians have learned weapons from the Turks, agriculture from the Slavs, alphabet from Italian priests, industry from Germans, trade from Jews. The veterans of the Roman legions planted grapes to make wine. Germans taught us how to brew beer. Russians have shown how to distill vodka. And the antialcoholic Turks made us like the Black Soup: the hot and strong black coffee, our national drink today. Now America teaches us to enjoy Marlboro.

Leo Szilard emerged from this melting pot of cultures. His great-grandfather was a shepherd, the grandfather was an agricultural enterpreneur, the father was a machine engineer. The family slowly descended from the Carpatian Mountains towards Budapest; the father's mother tongue was German, but he learned Hungarian in the school and changed his German-sounding name Spitz to the Hungarian Szilard (meaning solid). In his genetical and spiritual genes the Jewish, German, Slovakian, Hungarian, Austrian ethnical heritages produced a special mix, enriched by British and American flavors in his grownup life.

Leo Szilard was born in Budapest, on the 11th February 1898, in a city of blossoming industrial revolution. (At this time alternating current, the dynamo, electric train, and telephone central were designed by Hungarians as firsts; the first metro of the continent already operated in Budapest.) The young Leo admired the marvels of the new tech. He excelled in the high school physics competition. (This national competition is over 100 years old. The older Theodore von Karman and the younger Edward Teller were also winners at their high school graduations.)
When Leo was 16, World War 1 erupted. Leo told his friend: – Don"t be anxious because of the expected army service. The Austrian, German and Russian emperors will loose soon! –This was a strange prophecy because Russia was on the opposite side of the front – but Leo still turned out to be right. The Austrian-Hungarian Empire declared the war and lost.

When Leo became 20, Budapest experienced the rule of the Habsburg emperor-king, then republican revolution, parliamentary democracy, followed by communist rule, ending in foreign occupation, then in a military junta and an extreme-right-wing regime, all within twelve months. Each of them offered an ultimate truth, which sharply contradicted the previous one. It is a pedagogical experience that impact-rich environments cultivate talents. Under quiet skies social adjustment leads to happiness. Under changing (ideological) climates, however, conservative traditions turn out to be useless; but by searching for new escape routes creativity leads to survival. World Wars offer excellent school years for talents.

In this region one has to learn to trespass political borderlines if wants to survive. (One might even find himself in a different country just by staying at rest. This is a place where not only people but borderlines used to move. Szilard's ancestors' birthplace is now Slovakia.) The 20th century trespassed disciplinary borderlines as well. At this exciting spot of space-time Leo crossed political and disciplinary boundaries with ease.

Electricity was the great news in Budapest in early 20th century. When his sister became ill of diphtheria and was isolated, the two children communicated by home-made telegraph. Leo began studying engineering, but during the political revolutions he elaborated plans for a socialist tax reform.-to save Hungary. With his brother he joined the socialist youth organizations and distributed his pamphlets. After the fall of the revolution, he was beaten by conservative students at the Budapest Institute of Technology, so in December 1919 he boarded a ship towards the West - never to return.

In Berlin he became interested in the molecular structure of matter, asking: can intelligence fight the increasing molecular chaos? He has shown that even thinking happens with friction, and calculated the (entropy) price to be paid for 1 bit of information: k ln 2. (A side product of this interest was the Einstein-Szilard refrigerator, to make cold out of electric energy.) This problem made him interested in living cells, which are able to create organization out of food.

After World War 2, Leo tried simultaneously to save the world and to understand life. He studied biological evolution, the survival of the fittest in a test tube. He described aging as gradual loss of inherited genetic information. And when he was attacked by cancer, he elaborated the radiotherapy – and won. In California, he was instrumental in the creation of the Salk Institute for biological-social studies.
In the fiction Voice of the Dolphins he described his dream, how the world community of scientists can save the world, camouflaging themselves as dolphins. In 1960, he accepted the proposal to create such a real biophysical institute in Vienna – but his illnes prevented him from achieving a final victory.His earthly remains took rest in Hungarian soil on the 11th February 1998, his 100th birthday.

Was all this a senseless random walk on the map? Was Leo Szilard a madman mixing physics and engineering with medicine and politics? Or following the straightforward lead of his science and conscience, did Leo cross senseless disciplinary borderlines without inhibitions? The fin de siecle science and history has shown: Leo has been right! In our present view, information, life, telecommunication, intelligence and democracy are closely interconnected.

Other "mad Hungarians" , listed previously, also radiated out from Budapest, sailing westwards thanks to the strong wind blowing from the east, and surviving because of crossing disciplinary boundaries. The compressed historical experiences/adventures have made these people, having lived in the Central-Europe of the 1910s (or the 1940s), able to tell the future. Leo Szilard especially excelled: – You don't have to be cleverer than the others. You just have to be one day ahead of them.

In Budapest Leo turned from Jew to Calvinist one month before the rightwing takeover.

He left Berlin by train one day before Hitler closed the borders for Jews.

He left Vienna before Hitler annexed Austria.- I'll leave Europe one year before Hitler goes to war ---- and sailed to New York in 1938.

He wrote a letter to Stalin, forecasting war in Yugoslavia, and the U.S. involvement in it.

At all the times there were two suitcases packed in his hotel room, with keys in them, ready to leave immediately at a feeling of approaching danger. He even left New York, rushing to Switzerland, at the peak of the Cuban missile crisis. People were smiling at him. Now we understand from the declassified documents how near the world came to a nuclear war in 1962. In the same way he was willing all the times to enter a new field of research, in order to save humankind. The Martians made world history – and the Hungarian history had made them.

Leo Szilard was a Central-European among the whites.
The Martians, conference proceedings, Etvos University, Budapest 1996
George Marx: The Voice of the Martians, Hungarian Academy Press 1997
Leo Szildrd Centenary Volume, Etvos Physical Society, Budapest 1998

George Marx is president of the Hungarian Physical Society and an APS Fellow Department of Atomic Physics, Puskin 5, Budapest H 1088,
fax 36–1–2660206,

atom@hercules.elte.hu

Voodoo Science: Perpetuum Mobile

Adapted from the Joseph Burton-Forum Award Address

at the American Physical Society meeting, Columbus, Ohio, 18 April 1998

Robert L. Park

"What's the answer to the energy crisis?," Dan Rather was asking on the CBS Evening News, "Suppose a fellow told you the answer was in a machine he has developed? Before you scoff, take a look with Bruce Hall." It was January 11, 1984; CBS reporter Bruce Hall had traveled to the tiny rural hamlet of Lucedale, Mississippi to interview inventor Joseph Wesley Newman. A mile down a dirt road, past the "Keep Out" and "No Trespassing" signs, Hall stood with the inventor in front of his garage workshop. He described Newman as "a brilliant self-educated inventor." Dressed in work clothes, Newman declared that his "Energy Machine" could produce ten times the electrical energy it took to run it. "Put one in your home," he said, "and you'll never have to pay another electric bill."

It's the sort of story Americans love. A backwoods wizard who never finished high school makes a revolutionary scientific discovery. He is denied the fruits of his genius by a pompous scientific establishment, and a patent examiner who rejects his application for a patent on "an unlimited source of energy" without even examining it, on the grounds that "all alleged inventions of perpetual motion machines are refused patents." Joseph Newman takes on the United States Government, filing suit in federal court against the Patent Office. It's the little man battling a gigantic, impersonal system. There was no one on the CBS Evening News to challenge Newman's claim. On the contrary, the report included an endorsement from Roger Hastings, a Ph.D. physicist who declared that, "It's possible his theory could be correct and that this could revolutionize society".

Rule 1: There is no claim so preposterous that a PhD physicist cannot be found to vouch for it.

Most viewers must have been left wondering how the Patent Office could be so certain Joe Newman was wrong. The Patent Office based its judgement on the long and colorful history of failed attempts to build perpetual motion machines, going back at least to the Seventeenth Century. Water wheels had been used for centuries to grind flour, but many areas lacked suitable streams for a mill. In 1618 an English physician named Robert Fludd proposed a solution: Why not have the water wheel drive a pump, as well as grind flour? The water that had turned the wheel would be pumped back up into the mill race. A reservoir of water could be used to run the mill indefinitely. The concept of energy or "work" as a measurable quantity did not exist in the seventeenth century. Dr. Fludd's idea failed, but its failure led others to the First Law of Thermodynamics.

In the nearly four hundred years since, hundreds of inventors have tried to beat the laws of thermodynamics. The laws of thermodynamics always won. In frustration, and perhaps embarrassment, many inventors ended up resorting to fraud, constructing complex devices with cleverly concealed energy sources. Each failure, each fraud exposed, established the laws of thermodynamics more firmly. By 1911, the U.S. Patent Commissioner ruled that a patent application for a perpetual motion machine could not be submitted until one year after an operating model of the machine was left with the Patent Office. If the machine was still running at the end of a year, the application would be accepted. That seemed to bring an end to patent applications for perpetual motion devices.
Newman insisted that his invention was not a perpetual motion machine, and therefore, should not be subject to the 1911 rule. He claimed that the energy to run his machine came from the conversion of mass into energy according to Einstein's E = mc2. Slowly, he argued, his machine was devouring its own copper wires and iron magnets.

Viewers with no knowledge of the conservation of energy or the theory of relativity had no reason to scoff at Joe Newman. Dan Rather, a trusted guest in millions of homes, had invited people to take the story seriously -- and tens of thousands did. Joe Newman was transformed into a celebrity. He appeared on the Johnny Carson Show and rented the Superdome in New Orleans for a week, where thousands of fans paid a dollar to watch him demonstrate his energy machine. The crude 500 lb device with huge armatures that he and his wife had laboriously wound by hand in their kitchen, was now tucked out of sight under the hood of a sleek red Sterling sports car. Newman would drive the Sterling around the floor of the Superdome at a stately 4 miles per hour with the crowd applauding. "Do y'all believe this car was running on the current of a single transistor battery?" he shouts, holding a tiny battery above his head. The cheers are mixed with whistles and rebel yells. He challenges any Ph.D. physicist in the crowd to come down and debate him. The audience begins to titter as Newman shades his eyes, pretending to look in vain for some physicist coming out of the stands.

In his suit against the Patent Office, a federal judge, ordered Newman to turn his energy machine over to the National Bureau of Standards for testing. Newman and his lawyers bitterly protested the order. Nor was the Bureau of Standards eager to take the assignment. NBS scientists were keenly aware of the long history of perpetual motion hoaxes. Moreover, it seems Joe Newman was well known to the laboratory. He had shown up unannounced at NBS in 1982, with his Energy Machine in tow, pleading with NBS to test it. NBS declined, stating that Newman's claims "ran contrary to well-established scientific principles." Why was Joe Newman now opposing the very tests he had begged for four years earlier? If we can answer that, we will have gone a long way toward understanding voodoo science.

Few scientists or inventors set out to commit fraud; at least in the beginning, most believe they have made a profound discovery. As the first doubts creep in they may find reasons to delay critical experiments, or concoct elaborate explanations as to why contrary results cannot be trusted. But as evidence accumulates that things are not as they believed, they face a painful choice: the humiliation of public confession, or a lifetime of pretense. The longer they delay, and the more publicly and forcefully they have pressed their claim, the less likely it becomes that they will admit their mistake. Many, however, seem to leave the road entirely, becoming completely detached from reality. Sometime between 1982 and 1986, Joe Newman must have reached his crossroad.
Meanwhile, The federal judge in Newman's suit against the Patent Office, ordered him to deliver his machine to the National Bureau of Standards for testing. NBS found the machine to be nothing more than a crude motor-generator of a design inferior to devices readily available on the market. The bill for the tests was $150,000 -- paid by the taxpayers. Newman then filed suit against NBS.

So here we are, an inventor with no scientific credentials, claims without proof to have invented a machine that violates the most firmly established law of physics. He achieves a level of media exposure few of us will ever match, attracts investors, ties up the federal courts, wastes the time of the National Bureau of Standards, gets a Senate hearing -- all with an idea that we would expect a first year physics major to debunk routinely.

The Tethered Satellite
Lest you imagine that only a backwoods mechanic with a grade school education would try to beat the laws of thermodynamics, in 1992, NASA attempted to deploy a small satellite from the shuttle Atlantis tethered by a 20-km wire. The plan was that the conductor moving through Earth's magnetic field would generate electric power for the spacecraft. The mission manager described this as "a free lunch." That was the same mistake Joe Newman made. By Lenz's law, any attempt to extract electrical power would create magnetic drag. To maintain its orbit the spacecraft would have to fire its rockets. In effect, the electricity would be generated by the rockets -- and not very efficiently. In any case, the reel jammed at only 256 meter. Incredibly, NASA tried to refly the $1B mission four years later. This time the tether broke. Fortunately, NASA seems to have given up.

Rule 3: A PhD is not an innoculation against foolishness.

The Hydrogen Futures Act
In the spring of 1995, Rep. Bob Walker, chair of the House Science Committee, introduced The Hydrogen Futures Act. Its stated purpose was to promote the development of hydrogen, obtained from the decomposition of water, as a "new energy source." Walker's bill, as originally introduced, listed electric power generation as one of the potential uses of hydrogen, and pointed out that, with most of the planet covered by ocean, the supply is inexhaustible. In fact, since the product of hydrogen combustion is water, all that would be needed is an initial reservoir -- it was Robert Fludd's water mill in a different guise. It is doubtful if more than two members of Congress understood that they must first repeal the laws of thermodynamics.

The Patterson Cell
ABC's Morning News on February 6, 1996 carried a story about another inventor, James Patterson, and another inexhaustible source of energy. Once again, a trusted network news show was inviting people to take an infinite energy device seriously. Michael Guillen, the ABC science correspondent, who is himself a PhD physicist, delicately refrained from using the by now discredited term "cold fusion." The taped segment began with inventor James Patterson, in his cluttered garage workshop, talking with correspondent Michael Guillen. He tells Guillen his cell produces 200 times as much energy as he puts in. How does it work? He says he has no idea.

So what do the experts say? Identified only as belonging to "John Huizenga, nuclear scientist,"the first talking head says: "I would be willing to bet there's nothing to it." A second gray head, identified as Quentin Bowles, a professor at the University of Missouri, disagrees: "It works, but we don't know why it works. That's the bottom line." The entire exchange took under seven seconds.

Quentin Bowles, is in fact not a scientist, but an engineer at the Kansas City campus of the University of Missouri. He had been recommended by James Patterson. John Huizenga, on the other hand, is a distinguished professor of nuclear chemistry from the University of Rochester, member of the National Academy, head of a government panel that was convened to investigate the "cold fusion" claims of Fleischmann and Pons seven years earlier. But the viewers, of course, knew nothing of either man.

This creates what has been called "pseudosymmetry" -- the impression that scientists are about equally divided on claims that may have little or no scientific support.

Rule 4: The truth does not lie halfway between science and non-science.

Pseudosymmetry creates a troubling dilemma for scientists. Joe Newman's challenge to physicists to debate him may have been rhetorical, but had some prominent physicist taken up the challenge it would almost certainly have worked to Newman's advantage. Simplistic arguments and homespun humor tend to be more effective in such a debate than citing the laws of thermodynamics. It is an arena made for voodoo science. Creationists in particular are constantly trying to taunt prominent scientists into public debate. It has a way of seeming to elevate the controversy into an argument between scientists.

I called Joe Newman at his home in Lucedale recently to ask one question. He still demonstrates his Energy Machine, and appears from time to time on radio talk shows. But interest in the Energy Machine has faded. He says they like him on talk radio, not because they believe him, but because he's good for ratings. "Creative people,"Joe sighed, "die poor." I could not bring myself to ask my question. Besides, I already knew the answer -- the power lines still run to Joe Newman's house.

Robert L. Park is a professor at the Dept. of Physics,University of Maryland and APS Director of Public Information

Magnet Therapy

A.R. Liboff

There's a lot of media coverage these days concerning "magnet therapy". For good reason. Annual worldwide sales of such magnets are now reckoned in the billions of dollars. Many everyday folks, (and some physicians) swear by them. They are sold in a wide array of geometries, innersole inserts, flexible pads, small flat buttons, sleeping pads, folding seats, and even stylish bracelets. Most of the claims concerning these magnets refer to their effectiveness in obtaining relief from pain. Rumor has it that President Clinton made use of magnets to help him recover from his leg injury.

The increase in marketability of permanent magnets for pain relief is largely due to the discovery of new, high coercive force materials. Because the larger Hc found in NdFeB and in SmCo allows one to fabricate magnets having less self-demagnetization, very thin geometries are now capable of producing fields of about 0.1 T within a few mm of the pole faces. This means that thinner magnets can be taped to the skin more unobtrusively. Even before the discovery of NdFeB, therapeutic claims were being made for ferrite impregnated plastics, like those used to hold messages on refrigerators. It is a matter of faith and good advertising that the stronger NdFeB magnets are today preferred over ferrites, whose pole strengths are only hundreds of gauss instead of thousands.

New Age Physics
It is difficult for the physics community to deal with things like magnet therapy. Not only are the medical claims somewhat vague, but they are often accompanied by statements about magnetism that are totally wrong. Viewed in context, the magnet craze is really part of our contemporary culture. We may not like it, but a lot of New Age pseudo-science is hyped in mainstream America. Books with strange titles, (some written by respected colleagues), fill the shelves at Border's and Barnes and Noble, each purporting to explain all that quantum stuff, missing cosmological mass, multiple universes, and other assorted mysteries, up to and including God. A thriving pseudo-science subculture has blossomed on the Internet. New Age solutions to pain, disease, personal problems, even investments are explained away in terms of tetrahedral crystals, vortices, potentials, complexity, chaos, simultaneity, and more spins than in Washington politics. Magnets fit beautifully into all of this.

The public apparently likes science, but not at so great a price that one has to be precise. Physics terms take on new meanings, especially some we hold dear to our heart, words like force, energy, and charge. Energy medicine is a good example, encompassing among other things chi, acupuncture, auras, electromagnetism and any other field that happens to be invisible and was hard to understand in college. The physics used in this area is so bad, that paraphrasing Pauli, it's not even wrong. Part of the problem is that healing gurus practicing Energy Medicine feel compelled to reinvent the truth to explain their results. They justify their procedures by masquerading as scientists, borrowing terms willy nilly from physics as needed. They write paperbacks that are found in health-food stores. Many in the energy medicine area add nicely to their income selling such books. Sorry to say, people in pain are more in tune with clinicians who promise to help rather than scientists who tell them why they cannot be helped.

It may be some small consolation to realize that we in the physics community do not come off as the bad guys. Instead, modern medicine is almost universally the villain. According to the New Agers, doctors should know more than they do about the origin and treatment of pain. They contend that the billions spent on research on cancer have not resulted in a cure. There is also profound antagonism against the pharmaceutical industry. This was amply in evidence at a recent meeting I attended featuring a new and promising approach to fight cancer, ECT (for Electrochemical Treatment)[1] where speaker after speaker spoke bitterly about the hazards of chemo- and radiotherapy, each decrying the reluctance of the medical "industry" to seek alternative therapies.

I sometimes think that physics has been so successful in explaining the non-biological world that the public, making the comparison, is asking the medical community: Why can't you be more like them? Even though they don't know much physics, the New Age people want to bring more of it into medicine. In a certain sense, this argument may strike a resonant chord. Medical educators in this country continue to ignore the additional second year of physics that should be required of anyone seeking to enter medical school[2]. None of us should be surprised at how ignorant physicians are about the electromagnetic field.

But on the whole, there is no question about the tawdry history involving the clinical use of magnetism. The most infamous example was that of August Mesmer, immortalized (for the wrong reason) in the transitive verb mesmerize. In fact, today's claims for the healing benefits of simple magnets pale by comparison with those of Mesmer, who "magnetized" not only trees but also young women, usually without the benefit of sources such as currents or other magnets. Two centuries ago, Benjamin Franklin sat on a scientific commission that first examined, and then repudiated Mesmer's claims. This failed to stop the increasingly improper use of electricity and magnetism in medicine in the years that followed[3].

At the turn of the century, the misuse of electromagnetics in medicine had reached the intolerable point where Abraham Flexner, in his seminal Carnegie Foundation report, recommended against any further clinical training based on electricity and magnetism. This antagonism is still around today. Only recently have therapeutic practices based on the use of electricity and magnetism begun to reappear in clinical settings. (The same is not true for non-therapeutic work, where physics has revolutionized diagnostic medicine with devices such as the EEG, EKG, EMG, MRI, and SQUID). The alternative medicine crowd seems to be asking: why does current medical practice depend so heavily on administering pills and drugs? Is there no place for physics in the treatment of the sick?

Lack of Research
My first interaction with the magnet therapy business occurred in the mid-eighties, while attending an APS meeting in Baltimore. A Japanese colleague mentioned that a mattress company was successfully marketing sleeping pads with magnetic inserts to help elderly sufferers from rheumatism and other joint pains sleep more comfortably. He asked how this product could be made acceptable to the US Food and Drug Administration. I outlined the problem to an orthopedic surgeon friend at Harvard, who came up with a proposal to do a double-blind study on the efficacy of these pads. However it soon became apparent that the mattress company was not interested in anyone doing independent research, only in having their own internal reports disseminated. Just a few years years later, I was again approached, this time by a Swiss firm dispensing various ferrite sheets for different types of aches and pains, with no hard evidence, merely testimonials by satisfied users. Similar to my first experience these people were also turned off by any thought of research.

However bad this history, things have improved recently. Some magnet companies have initiated intra- and extramural research projects, partly motivated by criticism of their clinical claims, but also because of competition among these firms. In addition, they probably realized that it is inevitable that the sales of permanent magnets for therapeutic purposes will eventually come under the eyes of the Food and Drug Administration and the Federal Trade Commission. Whatever the reason, research projects are now underway in a number of universities, hospitals, and other clinical settings that will hopefully follow prescribed protocols and lead to publications assessing the potential benefits.

Comparison to ELF Studies
One difference between ELF magnetic field claims and permanent magnet claims is that the public regards the former fields as bad for your health while imagining the latter fields as beneficial. Contrary to this media-driven view, many recognize that ELF magnetic fields have potentially important medical applications. For example, weak ELF fields are routinely involved in treating certain bone disorders under approved FDA protocols.

But there are key physical differences, as well. The one involves very weak intensities, the other is substantially greater. In the ELF case, one deals with time-varying fields, in the other, a magnetostatic field. And, usually the ELF applications do not involve the large gradients that are found in permanent magnets.

Is There a Credible Physical Interaction?
Despite these differences, there is one thing common to both cases, namely the need to establish physical credibilty. One has to separate out the likelihood of physical interaction for ELF effects from physiological interactions. Unlike the uncertainties connected to merely giving pills or practicing surgery, physics has a well-honed understanding of how Maxwell's Equations work, even in tissue. Robert Adair, Emeritus Professor at Yale has strenuously argued[4] that there cannot be any weak ELF biological effects whatsoever, hazardous or non-hazardous, if the applied magnetic signals are so small as to be lost in the thermal noise. A similar consideration must hold forth as a prerequisite for any putative therapeutic effect due to permanent magnets. We are therefore justified in asking, even before considering the possibility of a physiological effect, whether there is there any conceivable physical interaction that may underly the claims that are being made.

The physical interaction underlying most "successful" ELF experiments, (i.e., those not dealing with questions of hazard, but rather seeking any physiological change) mostly fall into two empirical frameworks. The first is similar to ion cyclotron resonance (ICR)[5], where one applies parallel sinusoidal and static fields with the frequency-to-intensity ratio adjusted to equal the charge-to-mass ratio of biological ions such as Ca2+, Mg2+, and K+. It seems very unlikely that such a mechanism could play a role in permanent magnet interactions.

Physiological changes due to ELF magnetic fields have also been observed that are connected to Faraday induction of weak currents. Faraday induction in the field of a permanent magnet requires motion of conductive tissue relative to the magnet. For a magnet placed directly on the skin, the most promising configuration occurs when tissue moves with velocity v in the direction of the gradient, such that dB/dt = v (dB/dz). Detailed calculation reveals that for red blood cells in motion, such induced currents can amount, at most, to merely a few electrons per second.

Unlikely as Faraday induction may be, there are magneto-mechanical forces that could play a role. Biological tissues are for the most part diamagnetic, and there are measurable forces on diamagnetic materials in large gradient fields. This force is proportional to the product B (dB/dz). Ueno [6] has demonstrated that water can be visibly parted (the "Moses effect") in superconducting field gradient products of ~400 T^2/m. For a typical high Hc-magnet the corresponding value for this product is one hundred times smaller. Calculation reveals that the force on a unit mass of tissue due to a high-Hc magnet is orders of magnitude smaller than that exerted on a single myosin muscle fiber (3 pN) resulting from the energy transformation of a single ATP molecule7.

Nonetheless there is a mechanism that could conceivably provide a measurable interactive basis between magnet and tissue. Many biomolecules exhibit diamagnetic properties that are tensorial, with the diamagnetic susceptibility in one direction very different from that in other directions. This diamagnetic anisotropy can result in a torque, the size of which varies not only with the field strength but also with the number of adjacent, aligned molecular repeats. For biopolymers this number can be as high as 108 ~10l0, the latter occuring, for example, in the retina[8]. For such arrays the orientational energy can be equal to or greater than kT in fields of 1-10 T. Further there are many reports9 indicating that biomolecular arrays such as collagen, lipids, and DNA undergo substantial orientation in fields only 10-100 times greater than that found within a few mm of a NdFeB magnet surface.

Diamagnetic Anisotropy and MRI Fields
It is reasonable to ask why no such effects have been reported for the hundreds of thousands of patients who are subjected each year to MRI examinations. Perhaps the MRI investigators [10] were only seeking hazardous consequences, and avoided more subtle effects not included among the stark toxicity requirements of the FDA. (Actually, there is one reliably documented high-field effect. As first reported a century ago by d'Arsonval, placing one's head into an intense field results in flashes of light (magnetophosphenes), presumably initiated directly in the retina.) In any event, despite the outlandish claims and hoopla attached to magnet therapy, there may indeed be reason to ask whether magnets can interact with tissue. Nevertheless, it is best to remember that the presence of an interactive mechanism does not, by itself, mean that there has to be a therapeutic outcome. It just makes the whole thing more reasonable.

References

  1. C. K. Chou, "Electrochemical treatment of tumor". and following articles in
    Bioelectromagnetics 18: 1 (1997)
  2. A. R. Liboff and M. Chopp, "Should the premed requirements in physics
    be changed?", Am. J. Phys. 47., 331-336 ((1979).
  3. The Bakken Library and Museum in Minneapolis has a collection of devices on display, as well as books and articles ,dealing with elect romagnetics in medicine, both fraudulent and useful.
  4. R. K. Adair, "Constraints on biological effects of weak ext remely-lowfrequency electromagnetic fields". Phys. Rev. A 43: 1039-1048, (1991).
  5. A. R. Liboff "Geomagnetic cyclotron resonance in living cells" J. Biol. Physics 13: 99-102 (1985).
  6. S Ueno and M. Iwasaka, "Properties of diamagnetic fluid in high gradient magnetic fields." J. Applied Phys. 75. 7177-7179 (1994).
  7. J. T. Finer, R. M. Simmons, and J. A. Spudich, "Single myosin molecule mechanics: piconewton forces and nanometre steps." Nature 368: 113-119, (1994).
  8. F. T. Hong, D. Mauzerall, and A. Mauro, "Magnetic anisotropy and the orientation of retinal rods in a homogeneous magnetic field". Proc. Acad, Sci. USA 68: 1283-1285 (1971).
  9. J. Torbet, J-M. Freyssinet, and G. Hudry-Clergeon, "Oriented fibrin gels formed by polymerization in strong magnetic fields". Nature 289: 91-93 (1981).
  10. R. B. Frankel and R. P. Liburdy, Biological effects of static magnetic fields, Chapter 3 in C. Polk and E. Postow (editors) Handbook of Biological Effects of Electromagnetic Fields , 2cd edition, CRC Press, New York (1996).

A.R. Liboff
Department of Physics
Oakland University
Rochester, MI 48309
(248) 370-3412

A Public Debate on Science, Pseudo-science, and Spiritualism From the Perspectives of a Physicist, Sociologist, and Biologist

Alan Scott, Bob Salt, Ken Parejko

(The following articles are shown in order of appearance in the Dunn County News - a local Menomonie, Wisconsin newspaper.)

Alan Scott - Physicist

I just finished reading an article in the Dunn County News (September 14, '97). The newspaper quotes an individual talking about the healing value of magnets. He states "...football player who broke his ankle whose doctor declared it would take eight weeks for recovery. After using magnets and bioceramics for two weeks the break couldn't even be found". He also states "...child who fell hand first on burning charcoal at a picnic. Her mother picked her up, put a magnet on the child's hand, and 20 minutes later the burn was gone...".

After reading this article, I found myself shouting "Show me the evidence!" I challenge this person to support these claims with an article from a reputable magazine.

I could go into a long discussion on how magnetic fields influence simple objects, but for the best of me, I cannot see how magnetic fields would help as opposed to hinder the healing process. I would argue the predominant influence these magnets have on injuries is to absorb heat energy away from the injury - which can be done much more efficiently with cold packs.

This is symptomatic of the overall poor state of science literacy in this country. A lot of people believe in weird things that are simply not true or are unsubstantiated.

Why is this? I believe the answer lies in our culture and education.

Popular culture has been deluging us with stories of the supernatural. TV has the "X-Files" with genetically engineered alien DNA running amok. The movies have John Travolta who can toss objects with his mind and predict earthquakes. In many bookstores, you'll find more books on clairvoyants, faith healers, astrologers, occults and other pseudo-scientific notions than on physics, chemistry, biology, etc.

James Garland, president of Miami University in Ohio, has written an excellent essay on this subject entitled "An Alien Ate My Laundry: The Decline of Reason in the Age of Science." He states, "...our culture is turning to magic and superstition as a way of bringing order into a world that seems increasingly mysterious. I further believe that this embrace of the irrational is not a harmless indulgence of the imagination, but a growing deterioration in the ability of the general populace to think critically and to distinguish between fantasy and reality."

Our country's education system has not sufficiently acquainted students with the methods of science. Upon graduation, many have not gained the critical thinking ability to strain out the bogus science from the real science. To what degree is this occurring? A 1990 Gallup poll of 1,236 adult Americans show that 60 percent believe in astrology, 46 percent indicate that extra-sensory perception (ESP) is possible, 42 percent believe we can communicate with the dead, 67 percent have had a psychic experience. And if these numbers aren't disturbing enough, let us not forget that President Ronald Reagan and first lady Nancy Reagan scheduled presidential meetings and speeches on days selected by their astrologer in California! In Ronald Reagan's autobiography entitled "Where's the Rest of Me?," there is an entire chapter on astrology.

I just read in Scientific American (October '97) that Brian Alters and educational psychologist William Michael have found that about 45 percent (surveying 1,200 college freshman at 10 different schools) of incoming freshman reject the theory of evolution. These students tended to believe in misconceptions of evolutionary science. Two such misconceptions are "mutations are never beneficial to animals" and "methods used to determine the age of fossils and rocks are not accurate". Even the Pope in Rome has recognized evolution to be "more than just an hypothesis." Some religious groups consider the theory of evolution as entirely false and believe the earth to be only about 10,000 years old (in fact, it is about 4.6 billion years old). To reject evolution in its entirety, one must disregard many fundamental principles in physics, biology, geology, archeology, paleontology, and in some respects astronomy.

I make an attempt to combat science illiteracy in my introductory physics courses at UW-Stout. I require students to read an insightful and colorful essay written by Richard Feynman. The essay, called "Cargo Cult Science," examines the meaning of science and pseudo-science. In one part of the essay he contrasts "doing credible science" and the world of advertising. He states, "Last night I heard that Wesson oil doesn't soak through food. Well, that's true. It's not dishonest; but the thing I'm talking about is not just a matter of not being dishonest, it's a matter of scientific integrity, which is another level. The fact that should be added to that advertising statement is that no oils soak through food, if operated at a certain temperature. If operated at another temperature, they all will --including Wesson oil. So it's the implication which has been conveyed, not the fact, which is true, and the difference is what we have to deal with."

In this age of exponentially expanding information, it is hard to keep pace with all the new processes and novelties. This might be one reason people turn to mysticism and magic - to simplify and make order out of disorder.

We need to equip students to manage this new era with wisdom and understanding. They must resist the lure of pseudo-science, which promises easy solutions to complex problems. This country cannot be truly free if it allows itself to be complacent about the pervasiveness of pseudo-science in its culture!

Bob Salt - Sociologist
I feel the need to respond to Dr. Alan Scott's guest editorial where he claimed that belief in the healing value of magnets and belief in astrology, psychic ability, contact with the dead, etc., were signs of science illiteracy.
Unfortunately, Dr. Scott gives no evidence that people who believe in these things are poorly educated in science. He also provides no evidence that he has studied these phenomena or that they are in any way false. His entire argument is based on underlying assumptions that he fails to elaborate. In his judgment, these beliefs are wrong.
I am prepared to articulate a response to Dr. Scott that takes an opposing point of view on these issues. I will address the underlying assumptions he seems to be making and provide evidence that his conclusions are not justified.

Since Dr. Scott does not give any evidence to claim that beliefs in transpersonal or paranormal phenomena are false, I am uncertain why he draws his conclusions. I am going to guess that he starts with a prior assumption that they are invalid without even investigating these subjects. The basis for this assumption is likely to be the common tradition in modern science and philosophy to treat the material world and spiritual/metaphysical world as separate entities with science dealing only with the material world/universe and religion dealing with the spiritual and metaphysical.

This division goes back to the 13th Century in Europe and in more modern times was articulated by Descartes and Kant. Descartes' view, which has come to dominate western society and science, is that the universe is like a big machine.A later school of thought, known as materialism, believed that all that was knowable was matter and that there wasn't any spiritual dimension to the universe. This point of view seems to underly the position that Dr. Scott takes.

In opposition to this position is the view that there is a spiritual/nonphysical dimension to the universe and that it is knowable. This belief has existed for thousands of years in both Eastern and Western variations. In the West, a primary proponent of this view was Plato, but there have been many other scholars to take the same position.
While it is true today that Dr. Scott is in the majority in his view, there are many scholars even in his own discipline of physics who have believed or argued that there is a metaphysical or spiritual dimension to the universe. A few such physicists are Albert Einstein, Fred Alan Wolf, Gary Zukov, Frietjof Capra and David Darling.

Outside of physics, there are many scholars who demonstrate that there is indeed a spiritual dimension to the universe. These scholars include Deepak Chopra, Bernie Siegel, Elizabeth Kubler Ross and many others. In the social and behavioral sciences, many scholars have studied transpersonal and/or paranormal phenomena. They have established much scientific evidence for things like psychic abilities and communication with the dead. This is not to claim that there aren't people who defraud others in these fields, but that there are many verified cases.

My guess is that Dr. Scott is unaware of this research. I would hope that rather than make critical statements about other's beliefs without any investigation, that as a scientist he would study these topics.

I am reminded of a comment made by Andrew Weil, M.D., a Harvard-trained physician who also investigates the value of so-called alternative medicine. He said that there are two kinds of skeptics, open minded and closed minded. Open-minded skeptics are willing to consider new ideas but want to see the evidence, whereas close-minded skeptics have decided in advance what they believe and are not willing to consider alternative views of reality.

As Dr. Raymond Moody said in a speech this spring, scientists are supposed to be open to new theories and evidence. However, as Kuhn pointed out almost three decades ago, science is usually conducted by people trying to find support for and working within the established world view, what he called a paradigm. Kuhn demonstrated that scientists rarely reject their paradigm even in the face of contradictory evidence.

On a more personal note, I was in Dr. Scott's camp on this issue until a few years ago when I was sent a book on past life regression. I read it and was forced to consider that it might be valid due to the overwhelming evidence in the book "Many Lives, Many Masters" by Brian Weiss. As a scholarly person I needed more evidence, so I went to the Stout Library and read seven books on the topic of reincarnation. The evidence forced me to conclude that my prior view was wrong.

Indeed there is much scientific evidence for this position (see the research of Ian
Stevenson, for example). It also leads to the conclusion that we have a soul and that there is a God and spiritual realm in the universe.

I have experienced some rejection from my religious and scientific communities over my changed beliefs, but the evidence is too convincing to go back. I believe that if you review not just the scientific evidence, but even your own life experience, you will see evidence of psychic and spiritual phenomena.

My Story: While in Pennsylvania on a trip, I dreamed three straight nights that I was in a fire. When I returned home that first day back, my housemate put what he thought were dead coals in a plastic bag in the garage. Seven hours later, they created a fire that caused thousands of dollars in damage and required the fire department to put out the blaze.Was this pure coincidence that I had these three prior dreams or did I experience precognition in the dream state? I do not claim to have highly developed psychic ability, but that is only one of a number of personal stories of myself or family members or acquaintances that are not explainable in Dr. Scott's view of life.

I encourage all readers to look at the possibility of a spiritual/metaphysical realm in life, to know that they are spiritual beings with a soul and to open mindedly search for ways to grow spiritually. And, oh yes, it's good to know science, too, but don't let the scientists cover their eyes to truths that challenge their assumptions.

Ken Parejko - Biologist
As a scientist (biologist) and I believe, a very spiritual person, I think we have something to gain from the views of both Dr. Scott and Dr. Salt.It is clear to me in my classes that students do not have a firm grasp on what science really is. It is not a hard set of facts as presented in textbooks.Science is a process by which we come to understand the natural world and ourselves. It is not the only avenue to such an understanding, but it is a powerfully accurate and reliable way.

Walk into a room and flip on a light switch. A whole series of events occurs that depend on our understanding of metals, electricity, dynamos and so on.This understanding did not come through metaphysics. It came through physics. Asking a shaman to magically create lights is much less reliable.

Once students come to understand that scientific knowledge is always tenuous and subject to change, then science becomes much more interesting and exciting. What science does offer us is a way to judge claims about the natural world.What is the evidence for the claim, we must ask? Does the claim go beyond the evidence?

And as Carl Sagan and Bill Nye so often put it, extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. Claims of the influence of stars on human or earthly events, or the efficacy of numerology, of alien abductions, of the healing power of magnets or of clairvoyance require good, strong evidence.

Our minds are rather like winnowing screens, with which we winnow the daily harvest of our lives. It is important for us to separate the grain from the chaff and weeds that might contaminate the grain.If the screen of our minds is too fine and doesn't allow even the good grain to pass through, then we may end up starving. If the screen is too coarse and allows both weed seeds and the grain through, then the harvest of tomorrow, may be choked with trouble.

When does open mindedness become gullibility? Was it open minded for the members of Heaven's Gate to believe that a spaceship was shadowing the comet Hale-Bopp and that their destiny was to climb aboard? Is it open mindedness for participants in the Flame Foundation to pay $800 apiece to hear a lecture on why they, like the two founders of the foundation, are in fact immortal? Not in the spiritual sense, but in actual physicality. All they have to do is believe that they will never die and they won't, they are told.Several years ago in the San Luis Valley of Colorado, a strange-looking crystal skull was found in the desert. The local newspaper reported how people felt strange vibrations coming out of the skull, weird things began to happen to its finders and a psychic recommended that the owners keep a good distance from it. It was claimed the skull came from Atlantis, or was an alien artifact with supernatural powers. Were these people being open minded? The owners of the property adjacent to where the skull was found read about it in the paper and called in to point out that their son was a glass-blower who made crystal glass skulls and he had discarded that particular skull exactly where it had been found. When Colin Andrews, who publicized the crop circles of England, was shown a certain crop circle, he pointed out how it was too intricate to possibly have been made by humans. There was no sign of footsteps. Yes, he said, obviously created by extraterrestrials. Even after the reporters who had made that crop circle the night before showed him a videotape of them making it, he insisted it was not made by humans. It is not only scientists who become close minded and refuse to face the evidence.

The line between open mindedness and gullibility is sometimes a fine one. Intellect and the scientific method help us to not fall, or jump, over it. If we are to learn from human history, which is full of the terrible consequences of uncritical gullibility, then we should pause along with Dr. Scott and be concerned for the future.

Unfortunately, TV programs like "Dark Skies" and "X-Files" confuse the scientifically naive. One professor at the University of California recently complained that as evidence for the reality of alien abductions, college students in an astronomy class were citing episodes of the "X-Files." In modern America, the boundary between fiction and fact has become dangerously blurred.

Most of us have had experiences that science cannot explain. As Dr. Salt points out, to deny the spiritual aspect of life is to deny an important, fundament

Leo Szilard Lectureship is Funded

The APS has received nearly $65,000--enough to endow a Leo Szilard Lectureship. This new, endowed lectureship, which upgrades the unfunded Leo Szilard Award, will provide exposure for physicists who have applied their science for the benefit of society. Starting with the APS Centennial Meeting this March, the recipient of this award will receive a $1000 honorarium and travel money for lectures at least two institutions whose audiences include young physicists.

The rationale for the lectureship is to increase the visibility of physicists working for the public good and thereby to provide positive role models. Public policy issues increasingly involve a scientific or technical component: In addition to questions of energy use and nuclear weapons, citizens are now asked to evaluate the evidence for global warming, the possible health effects of power lines, the claims for and against new medical technologies and even the risk of asteroid impacts. In the dawn of the nuclear age, prominent physicists led the debate over the control of nuclear weapons; subsequently physicists lent their insights to the discussion of such issues as the safety of nuclear power, the antiballistic missile treaty and Star Wars.

But physicists involved in public service seem to be less visible today, so that younger physicists have fewer positive examples to follow. At the same time, the young PhDs are under great pressure to get and keep a job, and they are often shown only traditional paths. We would like to expose them to new directions, introducing them to many individuals who have done excellent physics to solve or elucidate problem of importance to society.
This endowment goal was reached thanks to the generosity of individuals and foundations. In June, 1997, the Packard Foundation made an initial grant of $9,000 over three years. Since then the Energy Foundation provided $10,000 and, in July, the MacArthur Foundation gave $35,000 to the cause. The Forum on Physics and Society already had about $6,000 in an awards account and donations from the generous individuals listed below totaled another $4,500. We would welcome any additional conributions.

We thank all the contributors who made this endowment a reality.

Leo Szilard Lectureship Working Committee:David Hafemeister, Barbara G. Levi, Tina Kaarsberg

Contributors: David Bodansky, Dave Hafemeister, Betty Karplus, Barbara Levi, Howard Rockstad, Art Rosenfeld,Andrew Sessler,John Silard, Kosta Tsipis, Lincoln Wolfenstein.

Visa Denials for Indian and Pakistani Scientists

In mid-July, there were reports that large numbers of Indian and Pakistani scientists were being denied entry into the United States for the purpose of participation in open scientific meetings, and that a number of students wishing to do graduate study were being denied entry. In a letter to Secretary of State Albright, APS President Andy Sessler noted that "the APS strongly supports the principle of free circulation of scientists as promulgated in the statutes of the International Council of Scientific Unions--a statute to which the US has adhered since its entry in 1931, and which requires timely approval of visas for bona-fide visiting scientists. Even in the depths of the Cold War, the US actively promoted the engagement of American and Soviet scientists; the continuing dialog contributed materially to the development of our science and to the reduction of international tensions. Today, we follow a similar course of engagement with China." He went on to express concern that failure to abide by these statutes could result in the US being barred from hosting international conferences.

The State Department responded that visas had not been denied, but just deferred, until a formal policy on dealing with Indian and Pakistani scientists had been reached. The State Dept. has been constrained by the Glenn Amendment, which automatically triggered sanctions when the tests took place, and which could be interpreted as requiring an end to all US-supported scientific collaboration. This new policy has now taken shape. A list has been drawn up of Indian and Pakistani institutions at which research and procurement for the nuclear weapons (and ballistic missile) program has been done, and only scientists from those institutions will be denied entry. Further, the State Department claims that individual scientist that have not been associated in any way with the nuclear weapons program will be able to apply for a waiver, even if theycome from institutions on the list.

Many scientists have mixed feelings about this issue. They support the concept of unrestricted travel for scientists.However, over the past decades, non-proliferation efforts have sought to restrict the spread of nuclear weapons based on the concept that overt proliferation should be punished, and such efforts can hardly maintain credibility if no punishment is forthcoming. The State Dept. policy, if implemented as claimed above, would seem to satisfy both desires.

A problem, of course, is to ensure that the State Department has the technical expertise to evaluate properly requests for visas (one scientist was denied a visa to attend a lattice gauge theory conference, in addition, Indian participation in the D0 experiment at Fermilab was cancelled; the relationship of these with weapons research is unclear, although the latter cancellation may be required by the Glenn Amendment). The NAS and APS are currently (as of mid-August) considering the best mechanism for providing this expertise. A Nature editorial stated, "The NAS and US scientific societies should press the State Department. to maintain normal scientific relations as far as is possible within the letter of the sanctions law and to maintain the right of scientists from the two countries to travel freely. Even non-proliferation efforts would benefit."

Richardson Confirmed at DOE, Lane at OSTP

Bill Richardson, former Congressman and U.N. Ambassador, was confirmed on July 31st to replace Federico Pena as Secretary of Energy. Following his nomination, Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) threatened to stall the confirmation because of concerns about undue White House indluence on the DOE approach to nuclear waste cleanup, however he was assured that Richardson would have full authority over nuclear waster issues, and then the Senate voted unanimously (by voice vote) in favor of the confirmation. President Clinton commented, "I am very pleased that the Senate today voted unanimously to confirm Ambassador Bill Richardson as Secretary of Energy. Ambassador Richardson brings extraordinary experience and expertise to this vital post. As a member of the U.S. Congress representing New Mexico, an energy-rich stae that is home to two DOE national laboratories, he has extensive firsthand experience on issues ranging from oil and gas deregulation, to alternative energy, to ensuring strong environmental standards in energy development. As U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., he has been a vigorous and articulate proponent of U.S. engagement and has successfully tackled tough negotiating challenges around the world. I am confident that Ambassador Richardson's tremendous energy, creativity and leadership will help secure our nation's energy future so that America continues to prosper."

On the same day, the Senate unanimously confirmed Neal Lane as Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). This office is responsible for providing the President with advice in all areas of science and technology policy and programs across the federal government. The Director also co-chairs the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology and serves on the National Science and Technology Council. Lane had served as Director of the National Science Foundation since 1993. Rita Colwell will now asssume the position of NSF Director.

Appropriations Bills; The R&D Doubling Bill

By the time this newsletter is distributed, the appropriations process should be nearly completed. At the time of the August recess, total funding for the NSF was $3,697 million in the House, with $2,815 million going to Research and Related Activities (R&RA), while the Senate appropriation was $3,644 million with $2,725 million for R&RA. This represents, depending on the final values, an increase of approximately 7 percent over last year's levels. The final appropriation will be worked out in a conference committee in September The bill faces a potential veto threat from President Clinton for various reasons, including language concerning the Global Climate Change Kyoto Treaty and elimination of funding for AmeriCorps, Clinton's national service program. The level of NSF funding, however, is supported by the White House.

Appropriations for NIST were considerably below President Clinton's request ($70 million in the Senate and $90 million in the House), primarily due to large cuts in the Advanced Technology Program. The in-house core laboratories (Scientific and Technical Research Services) were $11 million less than requested in the House, but only $1 million less in the Senate (the request was for a roughly 5% increase). The House would provide less total funding for NASA than either the request (by $100 million) or the current appropriation (by $300 million), and less than the amount recommended by Senate appropriators, which was very close to last year's appropriation. All of these appropriations await conference committee action. You can get the latest numbers from the AIP web-site at http://www.aip.org

The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation marked up S. 2217, the Frist-Rockefeller Federal Research Investment Act. This Act replaces the Gramm-Lieberman Act (see the April and July newsletters) which called for doubling non-defense R&D over a ten year period. The Frist-Rockefeller Act would authorize annual increases for most non-defense R&D of 5.5% over a 12-year period. This would result in a doubling of the federal government's support for civilian research from an estimated $34 billion in FY 1998 to $68 billion in FY 2010. Note that authorizations approve budget level, while appropriations provide the actual funds--the latter must be on a year-to-year basis. The bill also contains guiding principles for federal research efforts and calls for development of mechanisms for determining successful and unsuccessful programs. The bill currently has 22 cosponsors. Whether it is brought to the floor before the end of this year's session may depend on how quickly the appropriations bills can be completed this fall.

Does The National Ignition Facility Violate The CTBT?

The Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (IEER), a group in Takoma Park, MD, has claimed that the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and the Laser Megajoule Project violate the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and could open the way for the development of "pure fusion" weapons (fusion explosions without need for a fission trigger). Both NIF and Laser Megajoule will generate tiny fusion explosions (equivalent to a couple of sticks of dynamite) , triggered by huge, immobile banks of laser beams. The Director of the IEER, Arjun Makhijani, says that "NIF will not, by itself, lead to pure fusion weapons, but it could play a crucial role by enabling the design of targets for other driven systems, which could be miniaturized" .

David Crandall, director of the NIF office at the DOE, said that his office and the Jason group have confirmed that the machines pose no proliferation risk. Crandall says the signatories to the CTBT accept the definition of a nuclear explosion contained in the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), which specifically permits inertial confinement fusion research. In particular, the Germans, French, Swiss, Japanese and Americans (all of whom have laser fusion programs) have stated that the words "nuclear explosions" in the CTBT do not apply to laser fusion research, and no NPT party objected to that interpretation at the time of ratification. As far as "pure fusion" weapons, nobody has managed to get more than a few joules of energy out of such a device, even without "miniaturization". As FPS Chair-Elect Peter Zimmerman put it: "The only way I know of to use the NIF as a weapon is to drop the laser on somebody's head". It is unlikely that the paper will affect the construction of the NIF, which has strong Congressional support.

American Geophysical Union Statements

The following position statements were adopted or reaffirmed by the American Geophysical Union:

  1. The Council of the AGU notes with concern the continuing efforts by creationists for administrative, legislative and judicial actions designed to require or promote the teaching of creationism as a scientific theory. The AGU is opposed to all efforts to require or promote the teaching of creationism or any other religious tenets as science
  2. A healthy and effective space program is of critical importance to many fields of geophysics. The Space Station is designed to maintain human presence in space and facilitate microgravity and life sciences studies. The AGU remains deeply concerned that the high cost of implementing the current Station design will detrimentally affect NASA's science programs including Earth and space sciences. Transferring funds from the Science, Aeronautics and Technology accounts, which include Earth science, threatens the viability of a balanced national space program. AGU is also concerned that the high costs of the Station may detrimentally impace geological science programs in other areas. AGU recommends that the 1990 Report of the Advisory Committee for the Future of the U.S. Space Program be carefully heeded. The Report argues for a balanced space program, with selected program elements that are tailored to match the availability of funds. Implementation of the Space Station must not be allowed to cause the decline or demise of the exciting and important science elements of the national space program. AGU recommends that funds be included in the projections of future budgets for science elements of the space program, even if this action results in future reduction of the scope of the Station.

The Doomsday Clock Advances Five Minutes

Since 1947, the symbolic "doomsday" clock on the cover of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has been set to indicate the distance to "midnight"--thermonuclear war. It was set closest to midnight in 1953, when it was at 11:58. After the end of the Cold War, it was set back all the way to 11:43. As a result of the nuclear testing by India and Pakistan, the clock has been moved forward to 11:51, the closest to midnight since the end of the Cold War.

Watch Out For NSF Grant Titles!

During the House debate on the NSF Appropriation, a move was made by Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC) to slash NSF funding by $270 million dollars. He said "we need a tighter grip on the way they spend money; when I stand in front of a grocery store back home in my district and talk to folks, they talk about how they have to set priorities withing their homes...this organization should do the same" He circulated a letter criticizing the NSF for research to study "ATM's", "billiards", "poker" and "cheap talk".

Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI), a Ph.D. physicist then responded "I would remind y colleague that when his people come out of the store, he might ask them what they think of the laser scanner that was used to get them out of the store more efficiently, because development of the laser was financed in part by the NSF. He then pointed out that "ATM"s refer to asynchronous transfer modes (not automatic teller machines), "billiards" refers to the theory of rigid body collisions used in turbulent flow, "poker" refers to research on social interaction used to study decision-making processes and "cheap talk" refers to the cost of electronic information transmittal. As Rep. Boehlert (R-NY) noted, "A little learning is a dangerous thing---it's a mistake to judge a grant by its title". The Sanford amendment was defeated overwhelmingly.

Physicist Wins Easily in New Jersey Primary

Rush Holt, who was assistant director of the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab for nine years, handily defeated a better-funded opponent in the Democratic primary for Congress in New Jersey. He will oppose first-term Representative Mike Pappas (R-NJ), and the contest is expected to be very close. Holt was a APS Congressional Fellow in 1984, after teaching at Swarthmore. The only Ph.D. physicist now serving in Congress is Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI), who has been an extremely powerful voice for science in the last few years.

Truman Comments on Science Funding: 1948

50 years ago, President Truman addressed the AAAS on its 100th anniversary. The type of funding issues he discussed will be considered as Congress votes on the FY1999 appropriations bills in coming weeks. Excerpts from his address, which seem particularly appropriate today, follow. The full text can be found in FYI#109.

"In the 100 years since the AAAS was organized, science has helped transform the United States into the most productive nation in the world. I know that in your meetings this week you will be looking back over the progress of American science in the past century. I also know that you are much more interested in looking into the future.

You are looking forward, I know, because we stand at the threshold of revolutionary developments. Scientific research daily becomes more important to our agriculture, our industry, and our health. The members of the AAAS know better than I what developments to expect in the years ahead in physics, in chemistry, in biology and the other sciences, but I am certain of this--that science will change our lives in the century ahead even more than it has changed them in the 100 years just past.

I hope you will also be thinking about the relationship between science and our national policy.

Two years ago, I appointed a Scientific Research Board. Its report, entitled "Science and Public Policy" was submitted last fall to the 80th COngress. That report stressed the importance of science to our national welfare, and it contained a number of important recommendations. The most important were these:

First, we should double our total public and private allocations of funds to the sciences... Second, greater emphasis should be placed on basic research and on medical research.

Third, a National Science Foundation should be established. Fourth, more aid should be granted to the universities, both for student scholarships and for research facilities. Fifth, the work of the research agencies of the Federal Government should be better financed and coordinated.

If we are to maintain the leadership in science that is essential to national strength, we must vigorously press ahead in research. There is one simple axiom on which this thought is based. The secrets of nature are not our monopoly....

Our problem, therefore, is not a static one of preserving what we have. Our problem is to continue to engage in pure research. Such research alone leads to striking developments that mean leadership. yet it is precisely in this area that we, as a nation, have been weakest. We have been strong in applied science and in technology, but in the past we have relied largely on Europe for basic knowledge.

Now and in the year ahead, we need, more than anything else, the honest and uncompromising common sense of science. Science mean a method of thought. That method is characterized by open-mindedness, honesty, perserverance, and above all, by an unfliching passion for knowledge and truth. When more of the peoples of the world have learned the ways of thought of the scientist, we shall have better reason to expect lasting peace and a fuller life for all."

George Brown Speaks at AAAS Colloquium

Following are brief excerpts from "Past and Prologue: Why I am Optimistic About the Future", a speech given by Rep. George Brown (D-CA) at the AAAS Colloquium on Science and Technology on April 29th. A more extended version of the speech can be found on FYI #86.

"I will be very frank with you in my remarks. First, because I am getting too old and cranky to allow politeness to obscure the message...but also because we are facing a set of very tough policy issues that demand our attention as fully as any issues in recent history.....We are on the cusp on a number of changes in the way that we conduct our research and educational activities.

We shy away from the difficult work of developing qualitative measures for our efforts...An individual researcher is measured by numbers of publications or citations, research dollars obtained, or numbers of graduate students. Universities are similarly ranked by quantity..All of this leaves us with a clumsy and unsophisticated set of tools for evaluating the best of human innovation and thinking. I doubt that any of you would sign on to a research project as poorly designed as our current national experiment in science and technology policy.....

But the challenge is how do we address the issues I detailed earlier using the options presented to us by the positive changes taking place. Let me throw out a few suggestions:

First, on the international front....we should systematically review outstanding science needs, plans, and opportunities around the globe....From this list, we should plan a comprehensive series of collaborative agreements wherein we could work with international partners on the development of these projects...As we enter an international age of science, it makes no sense to continue our ad-hoc, item-by-item approach to international collaboration. On the domestic front....I think that the science and engineering community should work toward the development of an entity to perform broad forecasting and technology assessment work. The biggest mistake that the Republican majority in Congress has made was eliminating the Office of Technology Assessment. Without it, we have no place to integrate technology with social impact and are left blind on a host of complicated issues.

Next, I ask that AAAS or NAS or some respected multidisciplinary group develop a normative science budget... Congress does have a rational priority-setting system. Unfortunately, it is largely zip-code based: anything close to my district or state is better than something farther away... But if the science, engineering and academic community is serious about having a different, priority-setting process, the political system will need guidance from it.... I went through the process of developing an investment based budget last year and learned a great deal about budget priorities and politics. The fact that this process was so painfully informative leads me to call upon the research community to finish the work that it started in its reports on priority-setting for science funding and develop its own value-based budget.

One final point of action. The scientific community should review the present reward and incentive system...It is pointless for any of us to speak of reforms that emphasize a stronger role for education if a faculty member is judged mainly by the research that he or she performs. It is meaningless to speak of cooperative or interdisciplinary research if the rewards system discourages this behavior.

These are the simple challenges I lay before you this afternoon. And, don't blame me for raising these issues, blame your genius whose excellence raised the standards for success."

President Clinton Addresses MIT

Excerpts from President Clinton's address at the MIT Commencement on June 5th.

"First, we must help you to ensure that America continues to lead the revolution in science and technology. Growth is a prerequisite for opportunity, and scientific research is a basic prerequisite for growth. Just yesterday in Japan, physicists announced a discovery that tiny neutrinos have mass. Now, that may not mean much to most Americans, but it may change our most fundamental theories---from the nature of the smallest subatomic particles to how the universe itself works, and indeed how it expands.

This discovery was made, in Japan, yes, but it had the support of the investment of the U.S.Department of Energy. This discovery calls into question the decision made in Washington a couple of years ago to disband the superconducting supercollider, and it reaffirms the importance of the work now being done at Fermilab in Illinois.

The larger issue is that these kinds of findings have implications that are not limited to the laboratory. They affect the whole of society--not only our economy, but our very view of life, our understanding of our relations with others, and our place in time.

In just the past four years, information technolgy has been responsible for more than a third of our economic expansion. Without government-funded research, computer, the Internet, communications satellites wouldn't have gotten started. When I became President, the Internet was the province of physicists, funded by a government research project. There were only 50 sites in the world. Now, as all of you know, we are adding pages to the Worldwide Web at the rate of over 100,000 an hour. It all started with research, and we must do more.

In the budget I submit to Congress for the year 2000, I will call for significant increases in computing and communications research. I have directed Dr. Neal Lane, my new Advisor for Science and Technology, to work with our nation's research community to prepare a detailed plan for my review.

Over the past 50 years, our commitment to science has strengthened this country in countless ways....That is why, evan as we balanced our budget for the first time in 29 years, we have increased our investments in science. This year I asked Congress for the largest increase in research funding in history---not just for a year, but sustained over five years. It is a core commitment that must be part of how every American, regardless of political party or personal endeavor, thinks about our nation and its mission."

Questioning the Millennium: A Rationalist's Guide to a Precisely Arbitrary Countdown

By Stephen Jay Gould, Harmony Books, 179 pages, $17.95, ISBN 0-609-60076-1

The hands of the clock of civilization strike a cosmic midnight, tolling the end of a thousand years and the beginning of a thousand more. Religions were formed around the fear of this passage, governmental systems crumbled under its weight, the very nature of time was questioned during the transition into the new millenium. From ancestral cave scratchings of the moon and sunrises, to the tapestries recounting the season's harvest, we have been driven to define and organize time, its passage capturing the essence of human thinking and creativity. Stephen Jay Gould's Questioning the Millenium engages the reader in a socio-scientific discussion on the origin and impact of this most majestic moment as it approaches the year 2000.

Gould asks three main questions: What is the millennium? When is it? Why does it carry such importance? From these questions emerge scientific debate and historical intrigue.

What is the millennium? Gould refuses to acknowledge that it is simply the tearing of a calendar page or a number of atomic oscillations. The passage of time comprises events that carry the momentum of humanity. Gould writes: "We need time's arrow to assure us that sequences of events tell meaningful stories and promise hope for improvement. We need time's cycle for an ordered rescue from the fear that history might feature no more than a random and senseless jumble of events without meaning or guidance--just one damn thing after another..." Without a meaningful organization of time, existence is schizophrenic: events seem fragmented and inaccessible to the needs of human introspection.

The construction of temporal intervals reflects a deep-seated human need to impose structure upon reality. In this section, Gould challenges the reader to cast off any notions of time as an absolute or objective quantity, leading the reader to wonder if time is a reflection of humanity, rather than of natural reality. He recounts past civilizations' attempts to construct time based on their exposure to the periodicity in nature. From the counting of days by the average time between sunrise and sunset to the change in seasons, time's divisions have been evolving with experience and technology, but remain inherently subjective. Atomic clocks which some may percieve as an objective measure, are based upon the observation of millions of oscillations of cesium atoms, which now define our second. This section is fascinating, since it delves into the fundamental subjectivity of time.

In light of the human origin of time, we turn to the second question: When is the millennium? The search for the answer began in the sixth century. At that point, Dionysus Exiguus (Dennis the Short) was asked to construct a chronology for Pope St. John I. Oddly enough, the beginning of time according to Exiguus was not Year Zero, but Year One when Rome was built, an obvious subjective construction. He divided time again by the circumcision date of Jesus, 753 years after the building of Rome. This choice of year led to a dramatic inconsistency with the Gospels since King Herod, who played a pivotal role in the early life of Jesus Christ, would have died before Jesus was born. Consequently, the calendar was revised and led to the B.C./ A.D. system starting at 1 B.C., not zero. Starting a calendar with Year One is not surprising since at the time, the Chinese did not have a zero, the Egyptians had rarely used it, the Mayans did not grasp zero's deep meaning, and Hindu and Arabic scholars did not invent zero for themselves until about the ninth century.

The error of starting at Year One instead of Year Zero propagates into the next question: When is the millennium? Do we celebrate on 1 January 2000 or on 1 January 2001? The answer to this question is more of a class-cultural issue than a scientific question. What Gould argues is that both celebration dates are correct, but have led to the dichotomization of an intellectual class and a primitive class, with the intellectuals using historical fact to define their celebrations and the primitives longing for the aesthetic appeal of round numbers. The ancient creators of the calendar we use today started at one, not zero, so the passage of 1000 years occurs when we move from year --00 to year --01. However, the passage from 1999 to 2000 has a more dramatic appearance than from 2000 to 2001. Through historical anecdotes, Gould argues that this sensually pleasing change leads many of us to don our New Year's hats a year earlier than an intellectual definition would allow.

Why celebrate at all? Gould's third question focuses on humanity's need to celebrate time's passage. Gould does not fully address the notion of why we care about the millennium at a sociological level and is perhaps the weakest point of the book. Recognizing Gould's pronounced scholarly approach from previous books, the reader is forced to conclude that there is little available research about this question, else Gould would have elaborated upon it in scholarly exuberance. In spite of this, Gould engages the reader on topics such as the history of the Jewish Calendar and hypotheses on the origins of our primordial notions of time. The book concludes with a personal account of Gould's experience with his son, who is autistic and capable of instantantly calculating the day of the week for any date in any century. This section is a personal look into the meaning of time and is warming to the soul.

As we approach the new millenium, it is appropriate to address the social and scientific impact that the construction of the passage of time has had on civilization. Stephen Jay Gould's book discusses this impact and its implications on time, a quantity that the scientific community takes as an objective given.

D. Elizabeth Pugel
126MRL, Loomis Physics Labs
Urbana, IL 61801
217/265-5010

Articles from Science on Global Warming

Radical Ideas

Dieter H. Ehhalt, Science, 13 February 1998, 1002-1003.

Warmer and Wetter 6000 Years ago?

Warren Beck, Science, 13 February 1998, 1003-1004

These two brief articles focus on the reactivity of the OH radical, and on oxygen isotope ratio dynamics, respectively, in the Earth's atmosphere. They provide, for the general reader, some of the understanding of atmospheric analysis required to understand, evaluate, and criticize the continually emergent literature--and folklore--of global warming.

Temperature and Surface-Ocean Water Balance of the Mid-Holocene Tropical Western Pacific
Michael K. Gagan, et al, Science, 13 February 1998, 1014-1018.

This report resolves some of the discrepancy between alkaline-earth metal isotope ratios in coral, and certain foraminiferal oxygen isotope ratios, in estimating sea water surface temperature (SST) during the holocene period of about 6000 years ago. Previously, the coral measurements of strontium versus calcium isotopes were in doubt, because they seemed to reveal a holocene-glacial temperature difference which was too great. The eight authors measured 18O vs 16O isotope ratios in the discrepant coral and in the foraminifera deposits of the relevant holocene time periods. A new discrepancy in oxygen ratios was found, and it covaried with the coral alkaline earth metal discrepancies. The authors conclude that atmospheric transport of 18O-enriched water was greater than previously thought; this implied higher SSTs than thought, based on the previously accepted foraminiferal ratios viewed in isolation. Thus, the old foraminiferal SSTs were too low. The authors estimate the full holocene-glacial temperature difference to have been about 6oC. Consideration of atmospheric transport may explain other discrepancies known in the prehistoric SST record.

Simulated Increase of Hurricane Intensities in a CO2 Warmed Climate
T. R. Knutson, R. E. Tuleya, and Y. Kurihara, Science, 13 February 1998, 1018-1020

The authors used weather simulation software to study the effect of sea surface warming on characteristics of hurricanes. Such warming would be predicted if average atmospheric CO2 levels were to rise sufficiently. For a Western Pacific temperature increase of 2.2oC, the peak wind speed of hurricanes was predicted to increase by 5-12%, consistent with theoretical predictions. Several different approaches were used to initiate and sustain the simulated storms.

Ozone Loss, Greenhouse Gasses Linked
Richard A. Kerr, Science, 10 April 1998, 202.

The author reports on a recent article in Nature by D. Shindell, D. Rind, and P. Lonergan. These NASA-Goddard researchers ran a computer simulation of Earth's upper atmosphere which for the first time included the interaction of temperature and ozone-chlorine chemistry. Their model, at least in its first, preliminary form, not only accounted well for observations of the past decade, but it also predicted a greater future attenuation of ozone over the Arctic than previously expected. The author points out that, unexpectedly, ozone loss over the Arctic this Spring has been about zero, for unknown but presumably relevant reasons.

Abrupt Climate Events 500,000 to 340,000 Years Ago: Evidence from Subpolar North Atlantic Sediments
D. W. Oppo, J. F. McManus, and J. L. Cullen, Science, 27 February 1998, 1335-1338.

By studying a restricted spatial extent (the Bjorn Drift) of North Atlantic oceanic foraminferal ooze, the authors were able to select for stratigraphy of higher temporal resolution than had been possible in past studies. The finding of apparent sea-surface temperature oscillations of period around 600-1500 yr, previously invisible because of undersampling, was pursued by comparing samples of ooze from glacial and interglacial epochs. Based on their sampling method, the authors conclude that such abrupt oscillations, of order a few oC, have been of smaller amplitude during interglacial times than during (a) glacial times, (b) epochs of deglaciation, or (c) epochs of ice growth. The authors attribute the amplitude differences to deep ocean circulation changes of global scope. See also the related news article, "Sea Floor Records Reveal Interglacial Climate Cycles", by R. A. Kerr, pages 1304-1305.

Time Scales in Atmospheric Chemistry: Coupled Perturbations to N2O, NOx, and O3
M. J. Prather, Science, 27 February 1998, 1339-1341.

The author uses a linear transform matrix method to show that greenhouse gas reactions can't very well be studied in photochemical reaction-product pairs; but, that availability of products from one reaction should be studied as coupled with all others. Eigenvalue analysis reveals that, in general, the actual atmospheric multiplicity of reactions makes the longer-lived products available to other action; so the average effect is to shorten residence time of any one reaction product. For the triplet of most interest in this study, the author concludes that the coupling has led to a 10-15% overestimation in previous simple, one-reaction analyses of N2O residence in the stratosphere and troposphere.

The Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions in Tropical Cooling During the Last Glacial Maximum
A. B. G. Bush and S. G. H. Philander. Science, 27 February 1998 , 1341-1344.

The computer simulation reported here was enhanced by adding coupled, three-dimensional oceanic circulation parameters to previous atmosphere-only climate models. The result was a glacial-period sea-surface temperature which would be about 6oC cooler in the tropics than shown in previous simulations. The result obtained is in accordance with recent ice-core and other evidence showing tropical regions cooler than had been estimated in publications as recent as a few years ago.

John Michael Williams

P.O Bos 2697, Redwood City, CA 94064