On the Office of Technology Assessment
In response to Dr. Cranberg's letter (July 1995): At this writing, OTA is probably about to expire, despite strong efforts by many sympathizers including respected conservatives such as Representatives Weldon and Hyde, and Senators Hatch, Grassley, and Stevens.
OTA did not prevent Cranberg from testifying before Congress. It has no power to do so. Congressional staffers just do not take their orders from OTA. Dr. Cranberg is an acknowledged expert in neutron scattering and in home energy systems, but his credentials regarding polygraph effectiveness are less well established, perhaps accounting for the lack of an invitation to testify.
Dr. Cranberg's undocumented allegations of bias regarding a 12-year-old OTA study on polygraphs are off base. OTA found that polygraphs function well when there exists a restricted group of individuals suspected of a given crime. On the other hand, it found that if polygraphs are used to randomly test a large number of people, false positives can approach 20%. Further, retesting cannot be counted upon to reduce this rate because, if an individual falsely tests positive once, the same thing may occur upon retest.
As a result of this OTA study, the use of polygraphs as a dragnet in the Department of Defense was, fortunately, restricted. Moreover, Senator Hatch used the OTA report extensively during the writing and enactment of the Employee Polygraph Protection Act in 1988, which President Reagan signed into law. This history hardly implies conservative hostility towards OTA, as Dr. Cranberg suggests exists.
In fact, this OTA study didn't offend many people, except of course the more extreme polygraph practitioners, who feared a reduction of their lucrative market. Dr. Cranberg omits mentioning the name of his OTA Advisory Panel source who allegedly trashed OTA's work and procedures. May we be forgiven for thinking it might be someone with a pecuniary interest in the matter?
Actually, Dr, Cranberg may not fully understand that the purpose of OTA Advisory Panels is precisely to assure that major stakeholders have input to a study, but not a right to dictate the study's outcome. Their voices are listened to and their positions reported and analyzed. Occasionally, a stakeholder may be unhappy at the outcome of a report. This may apply to Dr. Cranberg's friend. Sorry, but that's life: A report designed to be impartial will not please everyone.
In spite of the allegations that OTA is criticized by conservative observers, a review of testimony given by the conservative Heritage Foundation reveals the contrary. David Mason, testifying for this group before Congress, stated that "OTA's work appears to be generally respected in the scientific and technical community...I find the OTA's congressional oversight mechanism, leadership appointment and personnel practices to be potential models for other support agencies."
In fact, OTA's accuracy, credibility, and impartiality may have led to its demise. It was reported to me that a staffer for one of the members of Congress most involved in trying to kill OTA defended his boss by saying, in effect, that OTA was being eliminated because it couldn't be bought, that is, the Congressional requesters of a report could not determine its outcome. If true, this is a sad commentary on today's political process.
Anthony Fainberg, former Senior Associate, OTA
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